A manifesto for the equifinality thesis

Flood frequency estimation under climate change with uncertainty. Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models: Data-based mechanistic modelling of environmental, ecological, economic and engineering systems, Fuzzy sets, uncertainty and information, Prentice Hall: Equifinality, sensitivity and uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads, Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications, Bayesian system for probabilistic river stage forecasting, Model structures, observational data and robust, scale dependent parameterisations: Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty, Dynamic real-time prediction of flood inundation probabilities, Bayesian calibration of mathematical models, Data-based mechanistic modelling and validation of rainfall-flow processes, A hydraulic model to predict drought-induced mortality in woody plants: Suggested articles Citations Uncertainty propagation and speculation in projective forecasts of environmental change, An approach to the preliminary analysis of environmental systems, Error analysis of ecological models in Multi-objective global optimisation for hydrologic models, Verification, validation and confirmation of numerical models in the earth scicens, Bayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic models, Computation of the instantaneous unit hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two small upland catchments, Simplicity out of complexity, General Systems Theory, The use of generalised likelihood measures for uncertainty estimation in high order models of environmental systems.and equifinality concepts) – discouraged by statisticians and statistical hydrologists • Mids - Used Monte Carlo in continuous simulation for flood frequency estimation • Beven, A manifesto for the equifinality thesis ( WoS citations).

Abstract This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed.

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A Manifesto for the Equifinality Thesis.

hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved.

Once the equifinality thesis is given serious consideration for the simulation problem, the question of model evaluation is particularly interesting.

A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
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